EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Aug 26 · 18:45 · Bradford City vs Burnley
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 64%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bradford City64%29%+35
OursMarket
Draw20%28%−8
OursMarket
Burnley16%43%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 46% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 57% | +27 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 71% | −35 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 72% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 40% | +40 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bradford City
LossLossWinWinWin
- Aug 20 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v Peterborough United (H)2-0
- Aug 8 · v Rochdale (H)2-0
- May 14 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
Burnley
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Notts County (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bradford City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.