League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Bradford City vs Leyton Orient
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bradford City55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Leyton Orient19%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bradford City
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 6 · at Rotherham United (A)4-0
- Oct 3 · at Reading (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newcastle United U21 (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Luton Town (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Notts County (A)1-0
Leyton Orient
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Stevenage (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal U21 (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)2-3
- Sep 8 · v Bradford City (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Bradford City | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.