League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Bradford City vs Stevenage
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bradford City45%49%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Stevenage24%23%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bradford City
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Leyton Orient (H)0-0
- Oct 6 · at Rotherham United (A)4-0
- Oct 3 · at Reading (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newcastle United U21 (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Luton Town (A)1-0
Stevenage
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Wigan Athletic (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · at Walsall (A)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Luton Town (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Bradford City | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.