Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 2 · 18:45 · Bray Wanderers vs Cobh Ramblers FC
Likeliest: Bray Wanderers win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bray Wanderers59%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Cobh Ramblers FC19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bray Wanderers
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at University College Dublin (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Treaty United FC (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Kerry FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Cork City (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Athlone Town (A)1-2
Cobh Ramblers FC
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Athlone Town (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Wexford FC (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Cork City (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v University College Dublin (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Longford Town (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bray Wanderers | Cobh Ramblers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 2-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.