Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:45 · Bray Wanderers vs Treaty United FC
Likeliest: Bray Wanderers win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bray Wanderers62%66%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+2
OursMarket
Treaty United FC18%15%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 34% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bray Wanderers
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 11 · at Kerry FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Cork City (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Athlone Town (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Longford Town (A)2-4
- Aug 7 · v Finn Harps (H)5-0
Treaty United FC
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Longford Town (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Wexford FC (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Kerry FC (A)1-3
- Aug 21 · v Cork City (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Bray Wanderers | Treaty United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.