Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · Bray Wanderers vs Wexford FC
Likeliest: Bray Wanderers win · 62%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bray Wanderers62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Wexford FC17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bray Wanderers
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 2 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)1-4
- Sep 25 · at University College Dublin (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Treaty United FC (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Kerry FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Cork City (H)1-1
Wexford FC
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 2 · v Longford Town (H)3-3
- Sep 25 · at Kerry FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Finn Harps (H)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Treaty United FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bray Wanderers | Wexford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 2-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.