Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 19:15 · Breidablik Kópavogur vs Víkingur Reykjavík
Likeliest: Víkingur Reykjavík win · 62%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 62% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Breidablik Kópavogur17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Víkingur Reykjavík62%58%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 27% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Breidablik Kópavogur
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Keflavík IF (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at ÍA Akranes (A)1-4
- Sep 15 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · at KA Akureyri (A)1-2
Víkingur Reykjavík
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 16 · at Breidablik Kópavogur (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v ÍA Akranes (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at KR Reykjavík (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Keflavík IF (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · v Fram Reykjavík (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Breidablik Kópavogur | Víkingur Reykjavík |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.