Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 · Brentford vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Brentford win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 41%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford53%41%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 59% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 56% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Dec 20 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Dec 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
- Dec 14 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-2
- Dec 3 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
AFC Bournemouth
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Dec 20 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Dec 15 · at Manchester United (A)4-4
- Dec 6 · v Chelsea (H)0-0
- Dec 2 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Sunderland (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Brentford | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.