Premier League (England) · Thu, Feb 12 · 20:00 · Brentford vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 45%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford32%19%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Arsenal45%57%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 51% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 51% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 43% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 81% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 25% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
WinLossLossWinWin
- Feb 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-2
- Feb 1 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Jan 25 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-2
- Jan 17 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Jan 10 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
Arsenal
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Feb 3 · v Chelsea (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Leeds United (A)4-0
- Jan 28 · v Kairat (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · v Manchester United (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.