Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 8 · 17:30 · Brentford vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Brentford win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Brentford42%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Aston Villa30%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Feb 26 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · at Leicester City (A)4-0
- Feb 15 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- Feb 2 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-2
- Jan 26 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
Aston Villa
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Mar 4 · at Club Brugge (A)3-1
- Feb 28 · v Cardiff City (H)2-0
- Feb 25 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-4
- Feb 22 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Feb 19 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-4 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.