Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 · Brentford vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brentford win · 48%
We make it 70% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford48%10%+37
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion30%63%−32
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 54% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 58% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 37% | +32 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 90% | −38 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 14% | +47 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 16 · at Macclesfield (A)1-0
- Feb 12 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-2
- Feb 1 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Jan 25 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 14 · at Liverpool (A)0-3
- Feb 11 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Fulham (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brentford form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record