Premier League (England) · Fri, Sep 18 · 19:00 · Brentford vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Chelsea43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 15 · at Reading (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Birmingham City (A)6-1
Chelsea
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Hull City (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Leeds United (H)6-3
- Sep 6 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-3
- Aug 27 · v Luton Town (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.