Premier League (England) · Sun, May 17 · 14:00 · Brentford vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Brentford win · 40%
A 35% away win. The market says 22%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford40%54%−15
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Crystal Palace35%22%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 78% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 46% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 71% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- May 9 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 2 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Apr 27 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Everton (H)2-2
Crystal Palace
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- May 13 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 10 · v Everton (H)2-2
- May 7 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-1
- May 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-3
- Apr 30 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.