Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 11 · 14:00 · Brentford vs Everton
Likeliest: Brentford win · 41%
A 33% away win. The market says 27%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford41%45%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Everton33%27%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 62% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 21 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Mar 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-2
- Mar 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
- Feb 28 · at Burnley (A)4-3
- Feb 21 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
Everton
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Mar 14 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Newcastle United (A)3-2
- Feb 23 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.