Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 11:30 · Brentford vs Fulham
Likeliest: Brentford win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford47%45%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Fulham28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 61% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 11 · v Everton (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Mar 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-2
- Mar 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
- Feb 28 · at Burnley (A)4-3
Fulham
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Apr 11 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Mar 15 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · v Southampton (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · v West Ham United (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.