Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 14 · 16:30 · Brentford vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Brentford win · 48%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford48%47%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−4
OursMarket
Leeds United29%25%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 47% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 65% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Dec 6 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-2
- Dec 3 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Nov 22 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
- Nov 9 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
Leeds United
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Dec 6 · v Liverpool (H)3-3
- Dec 3 · v Chelsea (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Manchester City (A)2-3
- Nov 23 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- Nov 9 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.