Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 9 · 14:00 · Brentford vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Brentford win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Brentford41%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Newcastle United33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-2
- Oct 28 · at Grimsby Town (A)5-0
- Oct 25 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Oct 20 · at West Ham United (A)2-0
- Oct 5 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
Newcastle United
WinWinWinLossWin
- Nov 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-0
- Oct 25 · v Fulham (H)2-1
- Oct 21 · v Benfica (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.