Premier League (England) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 · Brentford vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Brentford win · 45%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford45%52%−7
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
Sunderland31%21%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 47% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 79% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 71% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Jan 4 · at Everton (A)4-2
- Jan 1 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
- Dec 27 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-1
- Dec 20 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Dec 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
Sunderland
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
- Jan 1 · v Manchester City (H)0-0
- Dec 28 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-0
- Dec 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.