Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Brentford vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Brentford win · 51%
A 24% away win. The market says 16%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford51%60%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Sunderland24%16%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 84% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 40% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 78% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 30 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Birmingham City (A)6-1
- Aug 22 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-2
Sunderland
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Aug 30 · v Fulham (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- May 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Everton (A)3-1
- May 9 · v Manchester United (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.