Premier League (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 20:00 · Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Brentford win · 48%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford48%42%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−4
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur28%30%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 55% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 58% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Dec 27 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-1
- Dec 20 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Dec 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
- Dec 14 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-2
Tottenham Hotspur
WinWinLossLossWin
- Dec 28 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-0
- Dec 20 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Dec 14 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-3
- Dec 9 · v Slavia Praha (H)3-0
- Dec 6 · v Brentford (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.