Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 16:30 · Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Brentford win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 39%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford49%39%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur28%34%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 60% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 66% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 53% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- May 24 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-2
- May 9 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 2 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Apr 27 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
Tottenham Hotspur
WinWinDrawLossWin
- May 24 · v Everton (H)1-0
- May 19 · at Chelsea (A)1-2
- May 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.