Premier League (England) · Sat, May 2 · 14:00 · Brentford vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Brentford win · 46%
A 29% away win. The market says 25%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford46%51%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
West Ham United29%25%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 67% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 27 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · v Everton (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Mar 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-2
West Ham United
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Apr 25 · v Everton (H)2-1
- Apr 20 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Apr 10 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Apr 5 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Brentford | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.