Premier League (England) · Mon, Mar 16 · 20:00 · Brentford vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Brentford win · 40%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brentford40%61%−21
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers38%17%+21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 54% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 83% | −21 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 39% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 78% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brentford
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
- Feb 28 · at Burnley (A)4-3
- Feb 21 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Feb 16 · at Macclesfield (A)1-0
- Feb 12 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 6 · v Liverpool (H)1-3
- Mar 3 · v Liverpool (H)2-1
- Feb 27 · v Aston Villa (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
- Feb 18 · v Arsenal (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Brentford | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brentford form·Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record