Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · Brest vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Brest win · 45%
A 29% away win. The market says 23%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest45%52%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%26%0
OursMarket
Angers SCO29%23%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 77% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 69% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- May 13 · v Strasbourg (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-1
- May 3 · at Paris (A)0-4
- Apr 24 · v Lens (H)3-3
- Apr 19 · at Nantes (A)1-1
Angers SCO
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- May 10 · v Strasbourg (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Auxerre (A)1-3
- Apr 25 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Rennes (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Brest | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.