Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Feb 14 · 19:45 · Brest vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Brest win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Brest51%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Auxerre24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 11 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
- Feb 7 · at Nantes (A)2-0
- Feb 4 · at Troyes (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-5
- Jan 29 · v Real Madrid (H)0-3
Auxerre
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Feb 9 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Feb 1 · at Monaco (A)2-4
- Jan 24 · v Saint-Étienne (H)1-1
- Jan 19 · at Angers SCO (A)0-2
- Jan 10 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Brest | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 0-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.