Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 4 · 16:15 · Brest vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Brest win · 54%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest54%50%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Auxerre25%22%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 47% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 69% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
- Dec 5 · v Monaco (H)1-0
- Nov 30 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Nov 23 · v Metz (H)3-2
- Nov 8 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
Auxerre
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 21 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Dec 14 · v LOSC Lille (H)3-4
- Dec 7 · v Metz (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Paris (A)1-1
- Nov 23 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Brest | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.