Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 8 · 16:15 · Brest vs Le Havre
Likeliest: Brest win · 52%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest52%49%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Le Havre26%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 47% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 51% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 68% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 1 · at Metz (A)1-0
- Feb 20 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Feb 14 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · at Nice (A)2-2
Le Havre
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 28 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Nantes (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v Toulouse (H)2-1
- Feb 8 · v Strasbourg (H)2-1
- Jan 30 · at Lens (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Brest | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.