Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:45 · Brest vs Lens
Likeliest: Lens win · 45%
A 32% home win. The market says 18%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest32%18%+13
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Lens45%59%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 41% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 82% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 24% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Apr 19 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Rennes (H)3-4
- Mar 21 · at Auxerre (A)0-3
- Mar 14 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
Lens
LossWinLossWinWin
- Apr 21 · v Toulouse (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · v Toulouse (H)3-2
- Apr 4 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-3
- Mar 20 · v Angers SCO (H)5-1
- Mar 14 · at Lorient (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Brest | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.