Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 7 · 18:00 · Brest vs Lorient
Likeliest: Brest win · 38%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest38%41%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Lorient37%29%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 45% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 59% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 1 · at Nice (A)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Toulouse (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Rennes (A)1-3
Lorient
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 4 · v Paris (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · v Nantes (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at Rennes (A)2-0
- Jan 16 · at Monaco (A)3-1
- Jan 10 · at Hauts Lyonnais (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Brest | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.