Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 23 · 16:15 · Brest vs Metz
Likeliest: Brest win · 43%
A 32% away win. The market says 21%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest43%53%−10
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Metz32%21%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 79% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 47% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 71% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Nov 8 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Nov 2 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · at Le Havre (A)0-1
- Oct 25 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
- Oct 19 · at Lorient (A)3-3
Metz
LossLossWinWinWin
- Nov 9 · v Nice (H)2-1
- Nov 2 · at Nantes (A)2-0
- Oct 29 · v Lens (H)2-0
- Oct 26 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-6
- Oct 19 · at Toulouse (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Brest | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.