Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Dec 5 · 18:00 · Brest vs Monaco
Likeliest: Monaco win · 42%
A 36% home win. The market says 28%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest36%28%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Monaco42%47%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 72% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 38% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Nov 30 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Nov 23 · v Metz (H)3-2
- Nov 8 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Nov 2 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · at Le Havre (A)0-1
Monaco
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Nov 29 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-0
- Nov 26 · at Pafos FC (A)2-2
- Nov 22 · at Rennes (A)1-4
- Nov 8 · v Lens (H)1-4
- Nov 4 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brest | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.