Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Feb 20 · 19:45 · Brest vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Brest win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 25%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest41%25%+15
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille37%49%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 75% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 34% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Feb 14 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · at Nice (A)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Toulouse (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
Olympique Marseille
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Feb 14 · v Strasbourg (H)2-2
- Feb 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-5
- Feb 3 · v Rennes (H)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Paris (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Club Brugge (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Brest | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.