Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Feb 11 · 17:45 · Brest vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Brest35%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain41%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
WinLossLossWinWin
- Feb 7 · at Nantes (A)2-0
- Feb 4 · at Troyes (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-5
- Jan 29 · v Real Madrid (H)0-3
- Jan 26 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
Paris Saint Germain
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Feb 4 · at Le Mans (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · at Brest (A)5-2
- Jan 29 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)4-1
- Jan 25 · v Reims (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Brest | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 8-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 89% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-0-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.