Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 4 · 17:00 · Brest vs Rennes
Likeliest: Brest win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 32%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest46%32%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Rennes29%41%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 59% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 68% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 44% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 21 · at Auxerre (A)0-3
- Mar 14 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
- Mar 1 · at Metz (A)1-0
- Feb 20 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
Rennes
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Mar 22 · v Metz (H)0-0
- Mar 15 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
- Mar 8 · at Nice (A)4-0
- Feb 28 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Auxerre (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Brest | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.