Ligue 1 (France) · Wed, May 13 · 17:00 · Brest vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 41%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brest32%30%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Strasbourg41%43%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 54% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 41% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brest
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- May 10 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-1
- May 3 · at Paris (A)0-4
- Apr 24 · v Lens (H)3-3
- Apr 19 · at Nantes (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Rennes (H)3-4
Strasbourg
WinLossLossLossDraw
- May 10 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
- May 7 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-1
- May 3 · v Toulouse (H)1-2
- Apr 30 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Lorient (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Brest | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.