Premier League (England) · Mon, Jan 19 · 20:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 42%
A 36% away win. The market says 25%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion42%51%−9
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth36%25%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 63% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 75% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 67% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Jan 11 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
- Dec 27 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
AFC Bournemouth
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Jan 10 · at Newcastle United (A)3-3
- Jan 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-2
- Jan 3 · v Arsenal (H)2-3
- Dec 30 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Dec 27 · at Brentford (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·AFC Bournemouth form·Head-to-head record