Premier League (England) · Wed, Mar 4 · 19:30 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 54%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion24%19%+6
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−2
OursMarket
Arsenal54%58%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 49% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 49% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 81% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 25% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossLossLossWinWin
- Mar 1 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Feb 14 · at Liverpool (A)0-3
- Feb 11 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-1
Arsenal
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 1 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Feb 22 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)4-1
- Feb 18 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Wigan Athletic (H)4-0
- Feb 12 · at Brentford (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Arsenal form·Head-to-head record