Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion16%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Arsenal59%56%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Manchester United (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · at Coventry City (A)5-0
- Sep 5 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Chelsea (A)3-4
- Aug 27 · v Tromsø IL (H)4-0
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 15 · at Ipswich Town (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
- Sep 9 · at Napoli (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Arsenal form·Head-to-head record