Premier League (England) · Wed, Dec 3 · 19:30 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 51%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion51%45%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Aston Villa25%28%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 62% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Nov 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Brentford (H)2-1
- Nov 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Leeds United (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
Aston Villa
WinWinWinWinWin
- Nov 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-0
- Nov 27 · v Young Boys (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Leeds United (A)2-1
- Nov 9 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-0
- Nov 6 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Aston Villa form·Head-to-head record