Premier League (England) · Sun, Aug 23 · 13:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 42%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Aston Villa34%31%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 58% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Aug 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
- May 24 · v Manchester United (H)0-3
- May 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- May 9 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- May 2 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
Aston Villa
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 12 · at PSG (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Manchester City (A)2-1
- May 20 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-0
- May 15 · v Liverpool (H)4-2
- May 10 · at Burnley (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Aston Villa form·Head-to-head record