Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion52%51%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Aston Villa23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDraw
- Sep 13 · at Birmingham City W.F.C. (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
Aston Villa
DrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Chelsea FC (A)1-1