Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 64%
A 64% home win. The market says 48%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion64%48%+16
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
Brentford15%25%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 75% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 52% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 66% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Nov 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Leeds United (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · at Manchester United (A)2-4
- Oct 18 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
Brentford
WinWinWinLossWin
- Nov 9 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-2
- Oct 28 · at Grimsby Town (A)5-0
- Oct 25 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Oct 20 · at West Ham United (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Brentford form·Head-to-head record