Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Oct 4 · 13:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Charlton Athletic WFC
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 81%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion81%78%+3
OursMarket
Draw12%14%−2
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic WFC7%8%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 92% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 26 · at London City Lionesses (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Birmingham City W.F.C. (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
Charlton Athletic WFC
LossLossLossLoss
- Sep 26 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v London City Lionesses (H)1-4
- Sep 13 · at Everton (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Liverpool FC (H)0-4