Premier League (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 19:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 38%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion56%38%+17
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Chelsea23%36%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 64% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 62% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 52% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Liverpool (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Sunderland (A)1-0
- Mar 4 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
Chelsea
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 18 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Apr 4 · v Port Vale (H)7-0
- Mar 21 · at Everton (A)0-3
- Mar 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Chelsea form·Head-to-head record