Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 8 · 14:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 26%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion37%47%−11
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Crystal Palace40%26%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 74% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 53% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 65% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Jan 31 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Jan 19 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
Crystal Palace
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 1 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Chelsea (H)1-3
- Jan 17 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Macclesfield (A)1-2
- Jan 7 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Crystal Palace form·Head-to-head record