Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Crystal Palace16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 15 · v FK Kauno Žalgiris (H)4-0
- Oct 10 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Arsenal (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Manchester United (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · at Coventry City (A)5-0
Crystal Palace
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
- Oct 11 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Lech Poznań (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Crystal Palace form·Head-to-head record