Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 15:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Everton
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 53%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion53%51%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Everton24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Jan 24 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Jan 19 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
Everton
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Jan 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Jan 18 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Jan 7 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · v Brentford (H)2-4
- Dec 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Everton form·Head-to-head record