Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs FK Kauno Žalgiris
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 95%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 95% for the home win. The market says 92%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion95%92%+3
OursMarket
Draw3%5%−2
OursMarket
FK Kauno Žalgiris2%3%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 98% | 97% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 5% | 8% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 97% | 95% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 98% | 97% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Arsenal (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Manchester United (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · at Coventry City (A)5-0
- Sep 5 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
FK Kauno Žalgiris
WinLossLossLossWin
- Aug 27 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Beşiktaş (A)0-3
- Aug 11 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)1-2
- Aug 4 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)0-5
- Jul 29 · v Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | FK Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.