Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 47%
A 28% away win. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion47%50%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Leeds United28%24%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 76% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 68% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at Chelsea (A)3-4
- Aug 27 · v Tromsø IL (H)4-0
- Aug 23 · v Aston Villa (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
- May 24 · v Manchester United (H)0-3
Leeds United
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 30 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- May 24 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
- May 17 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Leeds United form·Head-to-head record