Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 12:30 · Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 31%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brighton & Hove Albion58%31%+27
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−5
OursMarket
Liverpool21%43%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 57% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 69% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 41% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 14 · at Sunderland (A)1-0
- Mar 4 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Feb 14 · at Liverpool (A)0-3
Liverpool
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 18 · v Galatasaray (H)4-0
- Mar 16 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)0-0
- Mar 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Galatasaray (A)0-1
- Mar 10 · at Boston River (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Brighton & Hove Albion form·Liverpool form·Head-to-head record